No, Iran's nuclear programme has not been set back by 'months'

It has been blasted years into the past at least, perhaps even more.

The aftermath of an Israeli strike on Tehran

When Israel sends its troops into action, it’s always the same. First they try to make you believe that it breaks “international law”. Then they inflate the number of civilian casualties and argue that this makes it illegitimate. Then they insist that there is no such thing as a military solution to anything, and after the dust has settled they claim that the whole thing was a failure.

Such is the playbook that is now being applied both to the Gaza war and to the “12-day war” with Iran. This morning, various dubious voices from inside the American military machine suggested to reporters that Operation Rising Lion had only set back the nuclear programme by a matter of months. When I ran this past a contact of mine who has been heavily involved with the campaign, he had only one response: “Lies.”

The Ayatollah’s nuclear dreams have been set back for years, he confirmed, and perhaps even longer than that. Moreover, if the beast begins once again to rear its despicable head, it can be decapitated once again in a fresh wave of Israeli strikes. With freedom of the skies, this will hardly be a challenge.

Of course, nothing is that simple. Andrew Fox has given a more pessimistic take and reading it is sobering. But the fact remains that Iran has been humiliated and castrated, its forces, human capital and armaments severely degraded and its options to menace Israel drastically reduced.

Just look at it by the numbers. Sixty-five per cent of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed by Israeli and American strikes. Between 800 and 1,000 missiles were eliminated on the ground before they could be launched, through preemptive airstrikes and precision targeting. Iran’s stockpile has been reduced to about a quarter of its previous strength.

All operational missile units in western Iran have been rendered inactive or destroyed, including those in key provinces like Kermanshah and Khuzestan. Scores of nuclear scientists and senior Iranian regime commanders have been eliminated and the atomic programme has been blasted back in time.

On the other side of the equation, of the 550 Iranian ballistic missiles launched at Israeli territory, only about 50 reached their destination, with eight of those strikes resulting in 28 civilian fatalities and one military casualty.

I remember a sombre visit to Israel about ten years ago, where military and intelligence experts described how the Jewish state had been encircled by Iranian proxies. Most people didn’t know it, they said, but Israel was in a dire strategic position. In the subsequent years, regular Israeli Air Force strikes on Syria succeeded in pushing hostile forces back away from the border and preventing further enemy build-up.

But the real miracles came after October 7. The achievements have been astonishing. All the Hamas and Hezbollah high command, from Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah downwards, have been eliminated, their arsenals destroyed, their command structures disrupted and their capabilities decimated.

Iran has been struck a blow it has never experienced before, and has been rendered vulnerable to further Israeli action whenever the circumstances demand it. Indeed, just today, when Donald Trump was asked whether Iran could be hit again, he replied simply: “Sure”.

Make no mistake, Israel now finds itself in a mightier position than it has occupied since 1967. Don’t listen to the naysayers. Yes, this is real life; yes, nothing is perfect; yes, the Iranian regime has not yet fallen; yes, the struggle continues. But for goodness’ sake, let’s raise a glass to the men and women of the IDF and the American Air Force, who have made the world a safer place today.